The Vaccine‑Preventable Disease Forecast is a tool developed by the Children’s Hospital Association (CHA) to help identify emerging trends and potential increases in vaccine‑preventable illnesses affecting children.
It uses historical data from approximately 40 children’s hospitals to estimate expected infection levels and identify months in which observed levels fall outside the expected ranges.
Children’s hospitals are often the first places where changes in pediatric disease patterns appear. The forecast is designed to help hospitals, policymakers, and public‑health partners anticipate potential surges, plan resources, and support prevention efforts for illnesses that vaccines can prevent.
The forecast is based on de‑identified inpatient, observation, and emergency department discharge data submitted to CHA’s Pediatric Health Information System® (PHIS) by approximately 40 children’s hospitals across the United States. The forecast utilizes data available from January 2016 through the most recent month available in PHIS.
The forecast focuses on vaccine‑preventable diseases affecting children, including conditions such as influenza, measles, pertussis, pneumococcal disease, rotavirus, and varicella.
CHA uses historic data to build models to estimate future infection levels. When the number of infections exceed the upper limit of what would normally be expected based on past patterns, those periods are flagged as unusually high infection levels.
No. The forecast is not real‑time surveillance and should not be interpreted as national disease reporting. It is a planning and trend‑analysis tool based on historical hospital data.
For real‑time surveillance, users should consult the CDC or state health departments.
No. The report reflects only children’s hospitals in PHIS. It does not include cases seen in community hospitals, primary‑care practices, urgent‑care centers, or telehealth settings.
The goal is to support prevention, preparedness, and informed decision‑making—not to alarm. By highlighting patterns in vaccine-preventable illness, CHA aims to reinforce the importance of vaccination and strengthen readiness to protect children’s health.
The report can help inform resource planning, vaccination outreach, and broader discussions about pediatric public‑health readiness. It should always be considered alongside other public‑health data and expert guidance.
Additional information is available through CHA’s Vaccine‑Preventable Disease Forecast resources. For clinical guidance or official surveillance data, consult the CDC or your state health department.